Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 18.385823 22.193465 26.413340 31.412112 37.145958 43.491125 51.016640
2025-05-11 12.959433 17.948041 24.076047 32.045317 42.013498 53.943693 69.162972
2025-05-18 9.638331 14.924565 21.969220 31.803594 44.908775 61.486112 83.716695
2025-05-25 7.216420 12.385772 19.799672 30.809320 46.287803 66.780757 95.390246
2025-06-01 5.676959 10.709793 18.420865 30.506624 48.290014 72.745200 108.026774
2025-06-08 4.327842 8.997759 16.644759 29.280161 48.700057 76.372993 117.525837
2025-06-15 3.694755 8.332958 16.354509 30.181778 52.172566 84.381257 133.397616
2025-06-22 2.900266 7.182098 15.057413 29.279715 52.749033 88.141366 143.324220
2025-06-29 2.536364 6.777885 14.972412 30.319858 56.373951 96.542555 160.320252
2025-07-06 1.910913 5.662852 13.402016 28.599830 55.352059 97.763423 166.645758
2025-07-13 1.691848 5.399436 13.407119 29.652865 58.959145 106.292673 184.329971
2025-07-20 1.488062 5.119226 13.329311 30.524906 62.287133 114.508306 201.835999
2025-07-27 1.288437 4.830161 13.260873 31.550379 66.214237 124.309176 222.946769
2025-08-03 1.084978 4.472235 12.996657 32.191723 69.563712 133.450756 243.625585
2025-08-10 0.866861 3.986004 12.342944 31.949409 71.252026 139.881754 260.211474
2025-08-17 0.657164 3.428842 11.396513 30.951470 71.404440 143.660960 272.585867
2025-08-24 0.519392 3.051702 10.814462 30.647650 72.824436 149.653076 288.812104
2025-08-31 0.380534 2.586098 9.883437 29.416605 72.283367 152.114911 299.162336
2025-09-07 0.327936 2.459160 9.873026 30.321594 76.101186 162.548372 323.456105
2025-09-14 0.243237 2.120183 9.153581 29.416158 76.095016 165.994118 335.814518
2025-09-21 0.212209 2.039842 9.217450 30.460189 80.258908 177.316977 362.295045
2025-09-28 0.143553 1.675064 8.254390 28.733717 78.314713 177.077619 368.362247
2025-10-05 0.125402 1.620238 8.340906 29.790705 82.547145 188.752731 396.056748